So, USA's setting up another false flag war, but one that will bite us all in the ass

[DmitrytheWizzy]

so when is Russia really gonna invade Ukraine, hm?
last week, Friday, no it's next Wednesday! etc etc
*face palm*


Is anyone listening?

Not to you.

[Ronin]

kick Russia out of SWIFT as a first move, and shore up Europes natural gas - destroy the oligarchs wealth and Russia's leverage, the oligarchs will make him stop.

That's a tough one. Kicking Russia out of SWITF is a double edge sword. If the goal is to make the citizens revolt and hurt the local economies and banks, then it might work, but that can be accomplished with regular sanctions.

The Russian government has been preparing for being cut off from SWITF since 2014 when the US proposed doing so back in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea. Part of the issue is Russian banks and foreign firms would just migrate to SPFS (Russian alternative to SWIFT -- while not as good, it still would work). SPFS would then likely receive more funding since there would be a larger market. Or Russia could use another system completely, say developed by China, which is bad for us too. Doing so would also hinder parts of the Terrorist Finance Tracking Program under SWIFT since it's used to see financial communication. As it stands right now, it's not really politized, either.

Another downside of that is more foreign firms migrate elsewhere and that has the potential to erode western power, specifically the US dollar. Iran, China, North Korea, etc. would still all trade with Russia with outside means. People may argue that it has precedence with Iran, but it's hard to compare Russia to Iran. I don't think banning Russia from SWIFT would have the same result as it did with Iran (e.g., Iran rejoined under the JCPOA years later).

I'd argue most sanctions are pretty toothless at this point with Russia. The other things you mentioned are occurring now and certain sanctions and freezing assets and such will bite for sure.

edit: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/26/here...sanctions.html

[Ackar]

Russia's space chief responds to new sanctions by suggesting that the ISS would no longer be prevented from crashing into the US or Europe

[Zarbonius]

So, uh...

I was just scrolling through reddit in the worldnews section, and... well, let's just say that I don't see how this ends well for Putin.

I mean, other countries are closing their airspace to Russia, most (all now?) of the EU is on-board with booting Russia from SWIFT, France is seizing Russian ships, sporting events in or involving Russia are being cancelled... Even Russian MPs are openly condemning the war. And now Germany is openly selling anti-tank weaponry and missiles to Ukraine, too?

How much rope does Putin have here? At this rate, I think we see the exit of Russia from Ukraine by the end of the week, and the exit of Putin from Russia shortly thereafter (or perhaps before?).

[FilanFyretracker]

I think Vlad the Mad underestimated the will of the people in Ukraine, I think he really expected them to fold in a day or two.

[Zarbonius]

Yep, props to the Ukrainians (military AND civilian) - they're tough as nails and loaded for bear (see what I did there?).

I think Putin so underestimated the international response, both in scale and in speed. This has moved very, very quickly. Certainly faster than the Russian troops on the ground.

[Dramadon]

I think Vlad the Mad underestimated the will of the people in Ukraine, I think he really expected them to fold in a day or two.

Yes! Vlad the Mad! I knew it!

[Dramadon]

Take twitter for what it's worth, but this thing is not going well for Russia. I keep reading accounts of serious supply issues for the Russian military. Ukraine has been remarkably effective at attacking these supply routes. Almost like they know where they are and where they are going....hmmmmm.

At any rate, I really wish someone over there would start spray painting "Wolverines" on some of the wrecked equipment I keep seeing.

[Silke]

I think that President Biden had a lot to do with this too. He completely opened up our intelligence to Ukraine and to the world. He told us, step by step, what Russia was doing and what they were planning next. So when Putin tried to fabricate an excuse to invade, the whole world knew it was bullshit and we had the receipts to prove it.

This isn’t over by a long shot and I’m terrified of what the people of Ukraine and Kiev are going through but it’s amazing to see them stand up for their country. And I think that was a major miscalculation of Putin’s. Everyone knew there was a very pro-Russian element in Ukraine (particularly the east) but it seems he underestimated the numbers of anti-Russia folk in the rest of the country.

[Ronin]

I think that President Biden had a lot to do with this too. He completely opened up our intelligence to Ukraine and to the world. He told us, step by step, what Russia was doing and what they were planning next. So when Putin tried to fabricate an excuse to invade, the whole world knew it was bullshit and we had the receipts to prove it.

100% this. I don't think people understand how helpful this has been. Over the past few months (and longer), US intelligence had tried to convince NATO and even Ukraine to mobilize earlier. It was amazing to see US and British intel decide to release information publicly to deter false flags from Russia (which Russia was caught red-handed on several occasions). This type of intel sharing is not normal, and it was spot on each and every time.

Goes to show how incredible military intelligence can be when your President listens and isn't discrediting your own agencies at every turn.

[Nerkahia]

Good for Ukranians!

I LOVE this story about them telling Russians to go fuck themselves lol.

https://www.politico.eu/article/go-f...r-ship-killed/

[Ninetoes]

So, uh...

I was just scrolling through reddit in the worldnews section, and... well, let's just say that I don't see how this ends well for Putin.

I mean, other countries are closing their airspace to Russia, most (all now?) of the EU is on-board with booting Russia from SWIFT, France is seizing Russian ships, sporting events in or involving Russia are being cancelled... Even Russian MPs are openly condemning the war. And now Germany is openly selling anti-tank weaponry and missiles to Ukraine, too?

How much rope does Putin have here? At this rate, I think we see the exit of Russia from Ukraine by the end of the week, and the exit of Putin from Russia shortly thereafter (or perhaps before?).

Supposedly Russian troops are massing on the Belarus/Poland border so who knows what he is thinking anymore.

[Ninetoes]

Yep, props to the Ukrainians (military AND civilian) - they're tough as nails and loaded for bear (see what I did there?).

I think Putin so underestimated the international response, both in scale and in speed. This has moved very, very quickly. Certainly faster than the Russian troops on the ground.

The logistical nightmare we are seeing definitely shows they didn't expect this to take any time.

[Ninetoes]

Anyway, Ninetoes, you’re Ukrainian? Thoughts and insights?

Yup, my grandfather came from Odessa via Kyiv. Grew up listening to stories of the old country. Obviously I am taking this personally and sincerely hope the Russian invaders plant an entire field of sunflower. It's just another example of Russian's irrational hatred of Ukrainians. Putin has vastly underestimated the ukrainian peoples resolve and determination to not only endure but emerge victorious. His reported actions on the Belarus/Poland borger and threats to Finland, Sweden et al just show he has ambitions far beyond Ukraine.

[Dramadon]

Yup, my grandfather came from Odessa via Kyiv. Grew up listening to stories of the old country. Obviously I am taking this personally and sincerely hope the Russian invaders plant an entire field of sunflower. It's just another example of Russian's irrational hatred of Ukrainians. Putin has vastly underestimated the ukrainian peoples resolve and determination to not only endure but emerge victorious. His reported actions on the Belarus/Poland borger and threats to Finland, Sweden et al just show he has ambitions far beyond Ukraine.

Honestly, I think he has completely lost it. Like, certifiable. At any rate, it's pretty clear that the only reason Russia still exists right now is because they have nukes.

[FilanFyretracker]

Honestly, I think he has completely lost it. Like, certifiable. At any rate, it's pretty clear that the only reason Russia still exists right now is because they have nukes.

Nukes are basically the only thing that stopped this from being WW3 already. The worry is what happens if he attacks an Article 5 nation and they call it up, Does Putin push the button and go global. Has he gone THAT far off the deep end to risk global thermonuclear war.

[Dramadon]

Well, this isn't good. I really hope we or one of our allies has someone who can contact someone in his inner circle. They need to end this guy. He's completely lost it. He's backed himself into a corner and I fully believe he would rather end civilization than to admit he made a mistake.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...e5a2f936725550

[Ackar]

Radioactive waste disposal site near Kyiv hit by airstrike, Ukraine officials say

[Ronin]

A Team Of American And British Special Forces Veterans Are Preparing To Join Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia

https://news.yahoo.com/team-american...172804995.html

[Ronin]

Belarus is getting ready to deploy troops to help Russia with its invasion of Ukraine, a U.S. official told reporters on Sunday evening.

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-...ion-of-ukraine

Hope they realize it's a bad move.