These are all insights from live sources. Some include videos that I won't link here. The first sentences are from four hours ago, and it gets more current as you keep reading my e-mail.
Rostov is completely controlled by Wagner. Sounds like most of the people/troops there fell in with Wagner without fighting.
Wagner forces pushing north on the M4 are fighting Russian troops at Pavlovsk. At least two Wagner vehicles have been struck.
Shoigu apparently left Rostov "in a hurry" last night, while Gerasimov stayed in town and has been drinking all week, anticipating "some kind of attack". No word on Gerasimov's current status.
Prigozhin has released another video, showing him in the Rostov army HQ "negotiating" with the deputy defense minister (unclear if deputy DM is a prisoner or not). He repeats his demand for Shoigu and Gerasimov, and "until they're here, we'll block off Rostov and head to Moscow."
Video shows security forces (Rosgvardia / OMON) entering the Wagner HQ in St. Petersburg. In Moscow, video shows people taking down all the billboards advertising joining up with Wagner.
Prigozhin is spilling the tea on the scale of casualties in the war. From his latest video: “we hold the airbase but aren’t interfering with strikes in Ukraine… they will blame us for hurting the war effort but it isn’t our fault..we found that losses are much larger than reported, 3-4x what is reported upwards and 10x what they say on TV.”
(UNCONFIRMED) Military facilities in Voronezh have switched sides to Wagner. Take this one with a huge grain of salt, since it's an Ukrainian flagged source, until someone independent can corroborate. As at midnight our time, Wagner is also claiming that Voronezh has fallen, and all military facilities are under their control.
Major report from Russian (non-state) sources: Russia's security forces are reported to be in disarray following the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group. It seems to have been perfectly timed for a moment – Friday night – when many personnel were too drunk to respond quickly, while others are refusing to fight Wagner. The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports what its sources are saying is the situation within various security organisations. At the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs, "Everyone is up and running, urgently reporting in. Now all the offices are like one big after-party." "80 per cent of the staff smell of booze. Some of them can barely stand on their feet. Can't arm 'em, can't send 'em anywhere. Friday night's the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody's standing around, waiting for something. No introductions." "A couple of hours more and the conflicts among themselves will start when [the alcohol] starts to wear off." Unwillingness to fight Wagner appears to be a common theme. "There is real panic in Rostov, especially among the police. There is more than a 40 percent shortfall in personnel among those called up in connection with Operation Fortress" (to defend security installations). Wagner forces were able to cross the border from Ukraine without opposition, despite orders not to let them through. "Both the border service of the FSB and the Interior Ministry received instructions to stop the Wagner PMC. No one is complying, as it is not realistic." Most ominously for the Kremlin, elements of the security forces appear to be actively siding with Wagner or refusing to act against it. "The defence ministry has lost control over a number of units and formations of the South Eastern Military District, it will not be possible to organise defence by the Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] and the FSB. Local leaders are extremely careful in their statements". "Attempts to counter Prigozhin are only going through the FSB and the National Guard. The Ministry of Defence has simply withdrawn, junior officers either refuse to follow orders or directly support Wagner." And Shoigu and the [MOD leadership] team just hid and completely lost touch with reality. The fear is obviously serious." Wagner is reported to be directly taking control of some South Eastern Military District units. "A number of units of the Ministry of Defence that participated in the war are beginning to come under the command of Wagner. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov's people are being removed." General Gerasimov himself has not been seen in public since the mutiny began. According to Wagner channels, he was in Rostov when it fell to Wagner forces. He is said to have "escaped from the Rostov [military] headquarters along with people loyal to him” and “is holed up in a civilian apartment with his friends in Rostov.”
Wagner has set up roadblocks in Aksay, Rostov Region.
Putin addressed the nation. Full address text: "I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically. I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny. Russia today is leading the most difficult war for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-nazis and their handlers. Against us, the whole military, economical and information machines of the West are turned. We fight for the lives and security of our people. For our sovereignty and independence. The right to remain Russia, a state with 1000 years of history. It's a battle where the fate of our people is decided requires uniting of all our forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything else hat weakens us must be shoved to the side. Our external enemies are using any arguments to undermine us from within. Thus, actions splitting our unity is a betrayal of our people, our combat brothers who fight now at the frontline. It’s a strike in the back of our country and our people. Exactly this strike was dealt in 1917 when the country was in WW1, but its victory was stolen. Intrigues, and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war. Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. But the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts. We will not let this happen. We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Extraordinary ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Treason of their own country and people and of the case that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers. Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemivsk, towns and cities of the Donbas. They fought and were giving lives to Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and brother-killing, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation. Repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a strike against our nation, our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal. Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment. They will answer to the law and our people. The Armed Forces and other departments were properly instructed. Extra anti-terrorist measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked. As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens. Those who prepared the military mutiny, who raise weapons against combat brothers, have betrayed Russia, and will pay for this. And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m asking to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake. Do the one right choice - stop participating in criminal actions. I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger."
Ministry of Defense statement: "We appeal to Wagner assault squads. You were tricked into Prigozhin's criminal adventure and participating in an armed rebellion. Be prudent and get in touch with our representatives as soon as possible. We guarantee safety." This comes after Commander Zeki of a "Storm-Z unit", part of the 71st Guards Regiment expressed his full support for Prigozhin. Storm-Z are so called penal batallions and mainly consist of convicted Russian inmates. The commander himself was sentenced to 26 years in prison.
Wagner has downed two Russian forces helicopters.
Shit, things just got real. At 12:45 our time, in the Wagner PMC Telegram channel: "Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president." Who made that statement isn't clear - it could be an underling that spoke in error - but it's the first concrete indication that this isn't just a fight for power under Putin, but rather a full-blown coup. And now journalists are calling it a coup.
I'll keep updating as I see new things. In the meantime, to try and keep your spirits up, here's a video that reminded me a lot of your "jump to serve you" newspaper ad from years ago:
https://www.reddit.com/r/cute/commen...uggle_is_real/
Originally Posted by Bonlainy
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